Reeves’ pubs U-turn: how business rates sparked a revolt, and why ministers are now under fire

15 January 2026

Paul Francis

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Rachel Reeves is preparing a U-turn on business rates for pubs after an unusually public backlash from landlords, trade bodies, and even some Labour MPs. In recent days, pubs across the country have reportedly refused service to, or outright barred, Labour MPs in protest, turning a technical tax change into a political flashpoint about competence, consultation, and whether the government understood its own numbers.

Two pints of frothy beer on a wooden ledge, reflecting on a window. Warm, dim lighting creates a cozy atmosphere.

The row centres on business rates, the property-based tax paid on most non-domestic premises. For pubs, it is often one of the highest fixed costs after staffing and energy. And while the government has argued its reforms were meant to make the system fairer for high street businesses, many publicans say the real world impact is the opposite: higher bills arriving at the same time as wage costs and other overheads are already rising.

What changed and why pubs reacted so fiercely

The immediate trigger was the November Budget package, which set out changes tied to the 2026 business rates revaluation and the planned move away from pandemic era relief. As the details landed, hospitality groups warned that many pubs would be hit by sharp rises because their rateable values, the Valuation Office Agency’s estimate of a property’s annual rental value, had increased significantly at revaluation.

A Reuters report published on 8 January 2026 described the government preparing measures to “soften the impact” of the planned hike after industry warnings that closures would follow. It also noted trade body concerns about elevated rateable values and warned that thousands of smaller pubs could face a bill for the first time.

The anger quickly became visible. ITV News reported on pub owners in Dorset who began banning Labour MPs after the Budget, with the campaign spreading as other pubs joined in. LabourList also reported that more than 1,000 pubs had banned Labour MPs from their premises in protest. Sky News similarly reported that pubs had been banning Labour MPs over the rises due to begin in April.

How business rates are actually calculated, with pub-friendly examples

Business rates can sound opaque, but the calculation is straightforward in principle:

Business rates bill = Rateable value x Multiplier, minus any reliefs

Where it became combustible for pubs is that multiple moving parts changed at once: revaluation shifted rateable values, multipliers were adjusted for different sectors, and pandemic era relief was being reduced or removed.

The government’s own Budget factsheet includes worked examples that show why bills can jump even when headline multipliers look lower.

Example 1: a pub whose rateable value rises modestly: In 2025/26, a pub with a £30,000 rateable value used a multiplier of 49.9p and then deducted 40% retail, hospitality and leisure relief. The factsheet sets out the steps: £30,000 x 0.499 = £14,970, then 40% relief reduces that to a final bill of £8,982. After revaluation, the rateable value rises to £39,000. The pub qualifies for a lower small business multiplier of 38.2p, so before reliefs: £39,000 x 0.382 = £14,898. Transitional support caps the increase, resulting in a final bill of £10,329.

Even here, the bill rises. The cap stops it from rising as sharply as it otherwise would, but it still climbs.

Example 2: a pub whose rateable value more than doubles: In the most politically explosive scenario, the factsheet describes a pub whose rateable value rises from £50,000 to £110,000 at revaluation. In 2025/26, the bill is calculated as £50,000 x 0.499 = £24,950, then reduced by 40% relief to £14,970. In 2026/27, before any relief, the bill would be £110,000 x 0.43 = £47,300. Transitional support then caps the increase, producing a final bill of £19,461.

That is still a meaningful jump in a single year, even with protections. For pubs operating on thin margins, that scale of increase can mean the difference between staying open and closing.

This is why so many publicans argue that the political messaging did not match the lived reality. They were told reforms would support the high street, then saw calculations that delivered higher costs.

What Reeves is now doing to correct it

The government has not published the full final package yet, but multiple reports describe a targeted climbdown.

Reuters reported that a support package would be outlined in the coming days and that it would include measures addressing business rates, alongside licensing and deregulation. LabourList reported that Treasury officials were expected to reduce the percentage of a pub’s rateable value used to calculate business rates and introduce a transitional relief fund. The Independent reported ministers briefing that Reeves was expected to extend some form of relief rather than scrap support entirely from April, after pressure from Labour MPs and the sector.

In practical terms, “softening” the rise can be done in a few ways:

Increasing or extending pub-specific relief so bills do not jump as sharply in April 2026
Adjusting the multiplier applied to pubs within the retail, hospitality and leisure category
Strengthening transitional relief so the cap on year to year increases is tighter
Supplementary measures like licensing changes, to reduce other cost pressures

The direction of travel is clear: the Treasury is trying to stop the revaluation shock from landing all at once on pubs.

The critics’ argument: ministers did not do their homework

The most damaging strand of this story is not the U turn itself, but the allegation that ministers did not understand the impact at the point of announcement.

Sky News has reported internal disquiet about the business rates increase, reflecting wider unease about the political cost of the policy. ITV has also reported pub owners arguing that the “devil is in the detail,” a polite way of saying the announcement did not match the numbers that followed.

Most seriously, reporting summarised from The Times states that Business Secretary Peter Kyle acknowledged ministers did not have key details about the revaluation’s effects on hospitality at the time of the November Budget, and that the property specific revaluations created an unexpected burden for some pubs.

That admission fuels the criticism that this was not simply a policy misfire, but a failure of preparation. The core accusation from critics is straightforward: if the government is reshaping a tax system built on property values, then the people in charge should have had a clear grasp of what the valuation changes would do to real businesses. If they did not, they were not doing the job properly.

Even if ministers argue the valuation process is independent, the political reality is that pubs heard one message, then saw another outcome. The result has been a crisis of trust that a late rescue package may soften, but not erase.

What this episode tells us about tax policy and trust

Pubs are not just businesses. They are community anchors and cultural institutions, which is why this backlash travelled so quickly from accountancy jargon to front-page politics.

Reeves’ U turn may yet prevent the worst outcomes for some pubs. But the episode has exposed a deeper vulnerability: when the government announces complex reforms without convincing evidence, it understands the knock on effects, and the backlash is not only economic. It becomes personal, symbolic, and politically contagious.

If the Treasury wants to draw a line under this, it will need to do more than patch the numbers. It will need to convince the public and the businesses affected that decisions are being made with full visibility of the consequences, not discovered after the revolt begins.

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The Perils of Political Assassinations: Lessons from History

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Jul 22, 2024
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At 6:11 pm on the 13th of July, former President Donald Trump narrowly escaped an assassination attempt at a rally in Bethel Park, Pennsylvania. The assailant, Thomas Matthew Crooks, failed to hit Trump but tragically killed Corey Comperatore, a 50-year-old volunteer fire chief who was attending the rally. The potential ramifications of Trump's assassination are twofold, in my personal opinion: 1) It would have made him a martyr, further pushing his cause, or 2) It would have turned him into a survivor, bestowing him with even more political clout. The latter scenario might have even fuelled the far-right narrative of 'he's chosen by God.' Only time will tell as America heads to the polls.

Man in a mask pretending to be Donald Trump outside Trump tower.

Historical Precedents: Assassinations That Shaped the World

Assassination attempts, as history has shown us, rarely lead to positive outcomes. Take World War I as a glaring example—an assassination that ignited a global conflict. Over 16 million people were killed worldwide, and the war’s aftermath directly contributed to the conditions that led to World War II. Let's delve into some of the most significant political assassinations in history, examining the individuals, their lives, and the chaotic aftermaths of their deaths.

Julius Caesar: The Fall of the Roman Republic

Born in 100 BCE, Julius Caesar was a towering figure in Roman history. Known for his military prowess, he expanded the Roman Republic through a series of conquests. Caesar was charismatic, pragmatic, and ambitious, traits that made him both beloved by the masses and feared by the Senate. However, his ambition and accumulation of power also made him controversial, with some perceiving him as a potential dictator.

The Assassination

On the Ides of March, 44 BCE, Caesar was assassinated by a group of about 60 senators led by Gaius Cassius Longinus, Decimus Junius Brutus, and Marcus Junius Brutus. They believed his growing power threatened the Republic’s traditions, fearing he would become a monarch.

The Aftermath

The immediate result was chaos. Mark Antony's speech swayed public opinion against the conspirators, leading to a series of civil wars. Ultimately, this power struggle resulted in the rise of Caesar's heir, Octavian (later Augustus), and the transformation of the Roman Republic into the Roman Empire.

Abraham Lincoln: The Cost of Unity

Born in 1809, Abraham Lincoln rose from humble beginnings to become the 16th President of the United States. Known for his integrity and empathy, he led the country through the Civil War and worked tirelessly to abolish slavery. Despite his many virtues, Lincoln was also a polarising figure, particularly in the Southern states, where he was seen as a threat to their way of life.

The Assassination

On April 14, 1865, Lincoln was shot by John Wilkes Booth, a famous actor and Confederate sympathizer, at Ford’s Theatre in Washington, D.C. Booth believed killing Lincoln would revive the Confederate cause.

The Aftermath

Lincoln's death plunged the nation into deep mourning and left Vice President Andrew Johnson to navigate the tumultuous Reconstruction era. Johnson’s lenient policies towards the South and clashes with Radical Republicans hindered efforts to secure civil rights for former slaves, exacerbating regional tensions for decades.

Archduke Franz Ferdinand: The Spark of a Global Conflict

Franz Ferdinand, born in 1863, was the heir presumptive to the Austro-Hungarian throne. Known for his conservative views and advocacy for military modernization, he was both a symbol of potential reform and an object of suspicion within the empire. His marriage to Sophie, Duchess of Hohenberg, was also controversial due to her lower rank.

The Assassination

On June 28, 1914, in Sarajevo, Bosnia, Gavrilo Princip, a member of the nationalist group Black Hand, assassinated Franz Ferdinand. The group aimed to end Austro-Hungarian rule over Bosnia and promote Slavic nationalism.

The Aftermath

The assassination set off a chain reaction, leading to World War I. Over 16 million people were killed worldwide, and the conflict caused massive destruction and reshaped the geopolitical landscape. The Treaty of Versailles and the harsh penalties imposed on Germany and other Central Powers created economic and political instability, directly contributing to the rise of fascism and the outbreak of World War II.

Mahatma Gandhi: The Price of Peace

Mahatma Gandhi, born in 1869, was a pivotal figure in the Indian independence movement. Known for his philosophy of non-violence and simplicity, Gandhi inspired millions with his principles of truth and civil disobedience. However, his personal life was complex; his strict adherence to celibacy and asceticism often caused friction with his family.

The Assassination

On January 30, 1948, in New Delhi, Gandhi was shot by Nathuram Godse, a Hindu nationalist who opposed Gandhi’s acceptance of partition and perceived appeasement of Muslims.

The Aftermath

Gandhi’s death led to national mourning and communal riots. Prime Minister Nehru’s government intensified efforts to stabilize the country and promote secularism. However, Gandhi’s assassination underscored the deep religious divides in India.

John F. Kennedy: The Shattered Dream

John F. Kennedy, born in 1917, became a symbol of a new generation of American leadership. Charismatic and youthful, Kennedy inspired many with his vision for civil rights and his handling of international crises. However, his personal life was marred by numerous affairs and health issues, which contrasted sharply with his public image.

The Assassination

On November 22, 1963, in Dallas, Texas, Kennedy was assassinated by Lee Harvey Oswald, a former Marine. Oswald's motives remain unclear, but his actions left an indelible mark on American history.

The Aftermath

Kennedy’s death shocked the nation and the world. Vice President Lyndon B. Johnson was sworn in and used the national sentiment to push forward significant civil rights legislation. However, the assassination also bred numerous conspiracy theories, fostering a lasting sense of distrust in the government.

The Futility of Political Killings

Throughout history, political assassinations have seldom achieved their intended outcomes. Instead, they often lead to greater instability, conflict, and long-term consequences that far outweigh any perceived benefits. As we reflect on these historical precedents, it becomes clear that political violence is never the answer. Constructive dialogue and democratic processes are crucial for fostering lasting change and stability.

So, as we observe the unfolding events in America from our vantage point across the pond, let us hope for a future where political disputes are settled through ballots, not bullets, and where leaders are remembered not for their violent ends but for their contributions to humanity.