Tensions on the Edge: What’s Happening Between Pakistan and Afghanistan

13 November 2025

Paul Francis

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The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has always been uneasy, but in recent weeks it has taken a serious turn. Cross-border clashes, air strikes, failed peace talks and growing accusations have pushed both nations into one of their most dangerous stand-offs in years. For many observers, the dispute has become a test of whether the region can avoid another long and destabilising conflict.

Helicopter flying over a sandy desert with rocky mountains in the background. Clear blue sky, conveying a sense of adventure and isolation.

A Fragile Border and a Growing Crisis

The Pakistan–Afghanistan border stretches for more than 1,600 miles across harsh mountains and remote valleys. It is one of the most difficult borders in the world to control. Communities on both sides share cultural and ethnic ties, yet it is also an area long associated with insurgency, smuggling and shifting alliances.

Tensions rose sharply in October 2025 after Pakistan accused militants based in Afghanistan of launching deadly attacks on its territory. The main group blamed was the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an organisation ideologically aligned with the Afghan Taliban. Islamabad claims that the TTP uses Afghan soil as a safe haven to regroup and plan strikes. The Afghan government, run by the Taliban since 2021, has repeatedly denied this, insisting it does not allow any group to attack a neighbouring country.

In response to a series of cross-border raids, Pakistan carried out air strikes inside Afghanistan, reportedly targeting militant positions near Kabul and across border provinces such as Khost and Paktika. Afghanistan retaliated with its own artillery fire along the frontier, resulting in casualties on both sides.

Diplomatic Frustration and Failed Talks

The violence sparked international concern, prompting Qatar and Turkey to step in as mediators. Both countries helped broker a temporary ceasefire in mid-October, but the calm was short-lived. Within weeks, the agreement had collapsed, with each side accusing the other of breaking the terms.

Talks held in Istanbul were meant to restore dialogue, yet they ended in stalemate. Pakistan demanded firm guarantees that militants operating from Afghanistan would be disarmed or expelled. Afghanistan, in turn, accused Pakistan of violating its sovereignty with repeated air operations. Efforts by Iran to offer mediation have also yet to produce results.

This latest breakdown highlights a deeper mistrust between the two governments. Pakistan once saw the Taliban’s rise to power in Afghanistan as a strategic opportunity to ensure a friendly regime on its western border. Instead, the relationship has soured, with Islamabad viewing the Taliban’s inability to rein in the TTP as a major threat to its internal security.

Why the Situation Matters

The border conflict is more than a local issue; it has major implications for the entire region. Pakistan’s western frontier has long been volatile, and instability there risks spilling into its own border provinces such as Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. If the violence continues, Pakistan may face a surge of displaced civilians and renewed domestic attacks from TTP factions.

Camouflage uniform with Pakistan flag patch, "Special Services Wing" badge, and pencil in pocket. Hand holding a paper, suggesting readiness.

For Afghanistan, the fighting threatens what remains of its already fragile economy. Cross-border trade routes with Pakistan are crucial lifelines for goods, fuel and humanitarian supplies. When the border closes or becomes unsafe, Afghan markets suffer shortages and price spikes, deepening the country’s ongoing economic crisis.

Neighbouring countries are also on alert. Iran, which shares a long border with both Afghanistan and Pakistan, has offered to mediate out of concern that the fighting could spread or disrupt trade routes. Further north, Central Asian nations such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are worried about militant movements and refugee flows across their southern borders.

Even China is watching closely. It has invested heavily in Pakistan’s infrastructure through the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship element of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. Escalating violence could undermine those projects and threaten Chinese personnel working in the region.

The Broader Picture: Security and Trust

Flags of Afghanistan and Pakistan on a detailed map with mountains, highlighted by warm sunlight, creating a diplomatic tone.

At the heart of the crisis is a question of control. Pakistan believes that the Afghan Taliban can restrain militant groups operating from within its borders, but evidence so far suggests that the Taliban either cannot or will not take decisive action. Some analysts argue that the Afghan leadership faces internal divisions, with hardline elements unwilling to confront groups that once fought alongside them.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s military leadership faces pressure at home to show strength. Repeated attacks by the TTP have killed hundreds of Pakistani soldiers and civilians over the past two years. Failure to respond decisively could be seen as weakness by a population already frustrated with economic hardship and political instability.

Both sides, then, are trapped in a cycle of accusation and retaliation, where every incident deepens mistrust.

Possible Futures

If diplomacy fails, further escalation remains a real risk. More air strikes or cross-border raids could ignite a wider conflict that neither country can afford. However, there are also reasons for cautious optimism. Regional powers, including Turkey, Qatar and Iran, have a vested interest in avoiding another prolonged war. Their mediation efforts, while limited so far, may keep communication channels open.

Trade could also serve as a bridge rather than a barrier. Pakistan and Afghanistan have both expressed interest in expanding economic cooperation through transit agreements and energy links. If stability can be restored, these could offer incentives for restraint.

The real test will be whether both governments can separate militant issues from broader political disputes. Without that, the ceasefire agreements will remain temporary, and the border will continue to be a flashpoint for years to come.

Impact Beyond the Border

The outcome of this conflict could shape regional security for the foreseeable future. A stable Afghanistan benefits not only Pakistan but also Central Asia and even Europe, which has faced migration pressures after every major Afghan crisis. Conversely, a breakdown in relations could fuel extremism, disrupt trade routes and draw in larger powers seeking influence.

For now, the international community is urging restraint. The question is whether Pakistan and Afghanistan can find common ground before local skirmishes evolve into something much larger.

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Ancient Beginnings: The Birth of New Year

The concept of celebrating the start of a new year dates back thousands of years, but the exact timing has shifted depending on the civilization.

Mesopotamia: Over 4,000 years ago, the Babylonians are believed to have been the first to celebrate the new year. Their festival, Akitu, lasted 11 days and marked the spring equinox, symbolizing renewal and rebirth.
Ancient Egypt: Egyptians tied their new year to the annual flooding of the Nile, a critical event for agriculture. This occurred in late summer and was seen as a divine gift.
Roman Innovations: The early Roman calendar began in March, but Julius Caesar’s reforms in 46 BCE introduced January 1 as the start of the year. The month was named after Janus, the two-faced god of beginnings and endings, symbolizing looking forward and backwards.

Medieval Celebrations: A Religious Shift

During the Middle Ages, Christian leaders altered the focus of New Year’s celebrations. The start of the year was often linked to religious observances, such as Christmas or Easter. However, by the 16th century, Pope Gregory XIII adopted the Gregorian calendar, which was restored on January 1 as the official start of the new year.

Modern Traditions: A World of Celebration

Today, New Year’s celebrations are as diverse as the cultures that observe them. Here’s a glimpse into how various countries ring in the new year:

United States: The iconic ball drop in New York City’s Times Square began in 1907. Fireworks, countdowns, and resolutions dominate festivities across the country.
Scotland: Hogmanay, the Scottish New Year, is known for its lively street parties and the custom of “first-footing,” where the first visitor of the new year brings luck.
Japan: Oshogatsu is a family-centred celebration marked by deep cleaning, visits to shrines, and the ringing of temple bells 108 times to cleanse sins.
Spain: Spaniards eat 12 grapes at midnight, one for each stroke of the clock, symbolizing luck for the coming year.
Brazil: People wear white for good luck and gather on beaches to offer flowers to Yemanjá, the goddess of the sea while enjoying music and fireworks.
India: The country observes multiple new years depending on regional and religious calendars, with vibrant festivals like Diwali and Ugadi showcasing the diversity of traditions.

New Year’s Resolutions: A Timeless Practice

The tradition of setting resolutions also traces back to the Babylonians, who made promises to their gods at the start of the year. Today, resolutions remain popular worldwide, focusing on personal growth, health, and happiness.

Looking Forward

As we continue to embrace global interconnectedness, New Year’s celebrations are becoming a shared experience across cultures. Whether through ancient rituals, modern countdowns, or heartfelt resolutions, the common thread is the hope for renewal, prosperity, and a fresh start.