Freezing Temperatures, Higher Bills: How the UK Is Bracing for Winter in 2025

20 November 2025

Paul Francis

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Winter is approaching, and although early forecasts suggest that temperatures may be average or even slightly milder than usual, UK households are still preparing for a difficult season. Rising energy bills, reduced gas production and warnings of pressure on the national grid mean that millions of people could face another expensive winter. For many families, this is becoming an unwelcome annual pattern rather than a temporary crisis.

Snow-covered branches against a cloudy sky backdrop, creating a serene winter scene with intricate patterns of snow and twigs.

This article explains what the weather outlook suggests, how energy bills are changing, and why winter 2025 may still be challenging for households across the country.

What the Forecast Says About Winter 2025

The Met Office indicates that the UK is likely to experience conditions that range from average to slightly milder over the coming months. A milder outlook does not remove risk, because the UK still frequently experiences cold snaps, early morning frosts and periods of high demand for heating. Even small drops in temperature can increase gas and electricity usage, especially in older homes that do not retain heat efficiently.

At the same time, the National Energy System Operator reports that the operational margin for electricity supply is the strongest since 2019. This is positive news, but the organisation still warns of potential high demand days where supply will need careful management. Cold and clear January mornings, for example, continue to place enormous pressure on the grid.

Gas supply is also a concern. National Gas has stated that UK domestic gas production will fall by around six percent compared with the previous winter. This means the UK will rely more heavily on imported liquefied natural gas, which is sensitive to global competition and international price movements.

Energy Bills and What Households Can Expect

Energy bills remain significantly higher than they were before the crisis began in 2021. As of October 2025, the Ofgem price cap for a typical dual fuel household paying by direct debit sits at roughly one thousand seven hundred and fifty five pounds per year. This represents a slight increase from the previous quarter and there are signs that bills may rise further during the colder months due to increased demand and network charges.

Consumer groups warn that low income households face the harshest conditions. According to the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, this will be the fifth winter in a row where energy bills remain historically high. They estimate that bills are roughly two thirds higher than they were before the pandemic. Many households are already struggling, and any increase in usage due to colder weather will deepen the financial strain.

Why Risk Remains High Even With Mild Weather Predictions

There are several structural reasons why winter 2025 still carries risk for consumers:

The UK remains heavily dependent on natural gas for heating and electricity generation.
Domestic gas production is shrinking, which increases reliance on global imports and international markets.
Standing charges and network fees continue to rise, affecting bills regardless of usage.
Many homes have poor insulation or outdated heating systems that waste energy.
Local cold spells, even during a generally mild winter, can lead to rapid rises in demand.

These factors mean the cost of heating a home is still higher than many households can comfortably manage.

How Households and Organisations Are Preparing

The government has expanded the Warm Home Discount scheme, offering a one hundred and fifty pound bill credit to eligible low income households. Energy companies and charities are also encouraging residents to take steps that can reduce consumption, such as using heating controls more effectively, improving insulation where possible and shifting usage away from peak periods.

Local authorities are preparing for vulnerable residents who may struggle to heat their homes. Many councils are reviewing emergency plans, including the availability of warm spaces and community support hubs. Housing associations are checking boilers, insulation and heating systems before temperatures fall.

Energy networks are preparing for high demand periods, carrying out inspections, reinforcing infrastructure and running exercises to ensure resilience.

What to Watch for as Winter Progresses

Several questions remain important in the weeks ahead:

Will there be a severe cold spell that significantly raises demand?
How will global gas markets affect the cost of imports and wholesale prices?
Will the Ofgem cap increase again in early 2026?
Are fuel poverty rates likely to rise further?
Will government support be increased if bills surge unexpectedly?

These factors will determine whether households experience manageable conditions or another winter crisis.

The UK may avoid a severe freeze this year, but the risk to household budgets remains very real. Rising infrastructure costs, a reliance on gas imports and continued pressure on energy systems mean that many people will face another financially challenging winter. A combination of preparation, targeted support and long term improvements to insulation and energy efficiency will be essential if the UK is to break this cycle in future years.

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UK locked into third-party age checks as MPs claim VPNs on expenses

Paul Francis
Aug 11
3 min read

The UK’s new Online Safety Act has introduced sweeping age verification rules for a wide range of digital services. From social media platforms to music streaming apps, users now face requests to prove their age through ID uploads, facial scans or other forms of verification.

The majority of these checks are being handled by specialist third-party companies, often based overseas. They act as intermediaries, confirming whether a user is old enough to access certain content. In many cases, they do not share the full ID with the platform, instead sending back a simple “pass” or “fail”.

How the system works

Under the new law, platforms must ensure that children cannot access content deemed harmful. That includes explicit music lyrics, violent games, pornography, gambling, and online discussions of subjects such as eating disorders or suicide.

To meet this “highly effective” requirement, most companies have opted not to build their own systems. Instead they have signed contracts with external providers such as Yoti, Persona and Kids Web Services. These services use techniques like:

Scanning an official document such as a passport or driving licence.
Estimating a user’s age through a selfie analysed by AI.
Linking to government databases or credit card checks.

Some verification companies promise to delete personal data within days. Others may retain information for months or years, raising concerns among privacy advocates. Critics point out that once this infrastructure is in place, it could, in theory, be used for purposes beyond child safety.

MPs’ VPN expenses draw attention

While the public adjusts to this new reality, attention has turned to how some politicians manage their own online access.

A POLITICO review of parliamentary expenses found that several MPs, including Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds, claimed subscriptions for virtual private networks (VPNs). Reynolds expensed a two-year NordVPN subscription in April 2024. Other MPs, such as Labour’s Sarah Champion and Alex Sobel, and Conservative MPs Gareth Davies and Chris Heaton-Harris, have also claimed for VPN services.

VPNs encrypt internet traffic and can hide a user’s location, making them harder to track. They are often used by businesses and journalists to protect sensitive information. However, they can also bypass regional restrictions, including those imposed by age-verification systems.

The revelation has sparked criticism online, with some pointing out the apparent contradiction between MPs approving legislation that pushes the public into using third-party age checks while themselves claiming tools that can avoid such checks.

What it means for ordinary users

For people who rarely think about online privacy, the combination of mandatory age verification and rising VPN usage can seem confusing. In practical terms, the new rules could mean:

You may need to upload official documents or scan your face to access websites you have used freely for years.
Your personal data may be handled by a company you have never heard of and which may be outside the UK.
Content you regard as harmless could still be blocked unless you verify your age.
Some smaller websites may block UK visitors altogether rather than invest in compliance systems.

Meanwhile, VPNs remain legal in the UK, but their usage is being monitored more closely. Providers have reported sharp rises in new subscriptions since the age verification rules came into effect. Privacy campaigners warn that this creates a two-tier internet where tech-savvy or wealthier users can pay for workarounds while others cannot.

The bigger picture

Supporters of the law, including many parents’ groups, argue that the measures are long overdue to protect children in an increasingly digital world. The government insists that the age checks are proportionate and that privacy is being respected.

Opponents counter that the approach is heavy-handed, ineffective against determined users, and potentially damaging to free expression. They also highlight that the involvement of overseas verification companies gives the UK little control over how data is stored or processed.

As the Online Safety Act’s child safety duties become fully enforceable, the divide between public compliance and private circumvention may continue to grow. The irony that some MPs are expensing VPNs while the public is told to trust age-checking systems has not been lost on critics.

For the average person, the choice is stark. Accept a new layer of ID checks to keep using familiar online services, or follow the lead of some elected representatives and invest in a VPN — with all the technical know-how and potential legal scrutiny that entails.