Tensions on the Edge: What’s Happening Between Pakistan and Afghanistan

13 November 2025

Paul Francis

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The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has always been uneasy, but in recent weeks it has taken a serious turn. Cross-border clashes, air strikes, failed peace talks and growing accusations have pushed both nations into one of their most dangerous stand-offs in years. For many observers, the dispute has become a test of whether the region can avoid another long and destabilising conflict.

Helicopter flying over a sandy desert with rocky mountains in the background. Clear blue sky, conveying a sense of adventure and isolation.

A Fragile Border and a Growing Crisis

The Pakistan–Afghanistan border stretches for more than 1,600 miles across harsh mountains and remote valleys. It is one of the most difficult borders in the world to control. Communities on both sides share cultural and ethnic ties, yet it is also an area long associated with insurgency, smuggling and shifting alliances.

Tensions rose sharply in October 2025 after Pakistan accused militants based in Afghanistan of launching deadly attacks on its territory. The main group blamed was the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an organisation ideologically aligned with the Afghan Taliban. Islamabad claims that the TTP uses Afghan soil as a safe haven to regroup and plan strikes. The Afghan government, run by the Taliban since 2021, has repeatedly denied this, insisting it does not allow any group to attack a neighbouring country.

In response to a series of cross-border raids, Pakistan carried out air strikes inside Afghanistan, reportedly targeting militant positions near Kabul and across border provinces such as Khost and Paktika. Afghanistan retaliated with its own artillery fire along the frontier, resulting in casualties on both sides.

Diplomatic Frustration and Failed Talks

The violence sparked international concern, prompting Qatar and Turkey to step in as mediators. Both countries helped broker a temporary ceasefire in mid-October, but the calm was short-lived. Within weeks, the agreement had collapsed, with each side accusing the other of breaking the terms.

Talks held in Istanbul were meant to restore dialogue, yet they ended in stalemate. Pakistan demanded firm guarantees that militants operating from Afghanistan would be disarmed or expelled. Afghanistan, in turn, accused Pakistan of violating its sovereignty with repeated air operations. Efforts by Iran to offer mediation have also yet to produce results.

This latest breakdown highlights a deeper mistrust between the two governments. Pakistan once saw the Taliban’s rise to power in Afghanistan as a strategic opportunity to ensure a friendly regime on its western border. Instead, the relationship has soured, with Islamabad viewing the Taliban’s inability to rein in the TTP as a major threat to its internal security.

Why the Situation Matters

The border conflict is more than a local issue; it has major implications for the entire region. Pakistan’s western frontier has long been volatile, and instability there risks spilling into its own border provinces such as Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. If the violence continues, Pakistan may face a surge of displaced civilians and renewed domestic attacks from TTP factions.

Camouflage uniform with Pakistan flag patch, "Special Services Wing" badge, and pencil in pocket. Hand holding a paper, suggesting readiness.

For Afghanistan, the fighting threatens what remains of its already fragile economy. Cross-border trade routes with Pakistan are crucial lifelines for goods, fuel and humanitarian supplies. When the border closes or becomes unsafe, Afghan markets suffer shortages and price spikes, deepening the country’s ongoing economic crisis.

Neighbouring countries are also on alert. Iran, which shares a long border with both Afghanistan and Pakistan, has offered to mediate out of concern that the fighting could spread or disrupt trade routes. Further north, Central Asian nations such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are worried about militant movements and refugee flows across their southern borders.

Even China is watching closely. It has invested heavily in Pakistan’s infrastructure through the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship element of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. Escalating violence could undermine those projects and threaten Chinese personnel working in the region.

The Broader Picture: Security and Trust

Flags of Afghanistan and Pakistan on a detailed map with mountains, highlighted by warm sunlight, creating a diplomatic tone.

At the heart of the crisis is a question of control. Pakistan believes that the Afghan Taliban can restrain militant groups operating from within its borders, but evidence so far suggests that the Taliban either cannot or will not take decisive action. Some analysts argue that the Afghan leadership faces internal divisions, with hardline elements unwilling to confront groups that once fought alongside them.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s military leadership faces pressure at home to show strength. Repeated attacks by the TTP have killed hundreds of Pakistani soldiers and civilians over the past two years. Failure to respond decisively could be seen as weakness by a population already frustrated with economic hardship and political instability.

Both sides, then, are trapped in a cycle of accusation and retaliation, where every incident deepens mistrust.

Possible Futures

If diplomacy fails, further escalation remains a real risk. More air strikes or cross-border raids could ignite a wider conflict that neither country can afford. However, there are also reasons for cautious optimism. Regional powers, including Turkey, Qatar and Iran, have a vested interest in avoiding another prolonged war. Their mediation efforts, while limited so far, may keep communication channels open.

Trade could also serve as a bridge rather than a barrier. Pakistan and Afghanistan have both expressed interest in expanding economic cooperation through transit agreements and energy links. If stability can be restored, these could offer incentives for restraint.

The real test will be whether both governments can separate militant issues from broader political disputes. Without that, the ceasefire agreements will remain temporary, and the border will continue to be a flashpoint for years to come.

Impact Beyond the Border

The outcome of this conflict could shape regional security for the foreseeable future. A stable Afghanistan benefits not only Pakistan but also Central Asia and even Europe, which has faced migration pressures after every major Afghan crisis. Conversely, a breakdown in relations could fuel extremism, disrupt trade routes and draw in larger powers seeking influence.

For now, the international community is urging restraint. The question is whether Pakistan and Afghanistan can find common ground before local skirmishes evolve into something much larger.

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Navigating the Impact of U.S. Tariffs on UK Businesses: Challenges and Strategies

Paul Francis
Apr 3
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The recent imposition of tariffs by the United States on UK imports has raised significant concerns for businesses and policymakers alike. As trade negotiations between the UK and the U.S. remain uncertain, UK industries are preparing for potential economic disruptions. If these tariffs remain in place, they could have far-reaching consequences for exporters, supply chains, and overall economic growth. This article explores the impact of these tariffs, the sectors most affected, and strategic measures businesses can take to mitigate financial losses.

US and UK flags wave in a foggy industrial setting with cranes and shipping containers, creating a patriotic and nostalgic mood.

The U.S. Tariff Plan: What Is Happening?

The United States has announced a series of tariffs on foreign imports, including UK goods, as part of a broader trade policy shift under the Trump administration. These tariffs include:

A 20% blanket tariff on all finished goods entering the U.S.
25% tariffs on steel and automotive imports
Sector-specific tariffs on industries such as agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and technology

These tariffs are being implemented to protect American industries, reduce the trade deficit, and encourage domestic manufacturing. However, for UK exporters, they pose a serious threat to profitability and competitiveness in the U.S. market.

Which UK Businesses Are Most Affected?

Several key industries in the UK stand to suffer due to these new trade barriers:

1. Automotive Industry

Manufacturers like Jaguar Land Rover and Aston Martin could be among the hardest hit due to the 25% tariff on vehicle exports. The U.S. is one of the largest markets for British luxury cars, and such tariffs could significantly reduce demand.

2. Steel and Metal Producers

The UK steel industry, already struggling with rising production costs, now faces a 25% tariff when exporting to the U.S. This will make British steel less competitive against domestic U.S. producers and alternative suppliers from tariff-free regions.

3. Food and Beverage Sector

UK agricultural exports such as whisky, dairy products, and seafood could face significant price increases in the U.S. market. Scottish whisky, a major export product, has historically been targeted in previous trade disputes and may suffer once again.

4. Pharmaceutical and Chemical Industry

The UK pharmaceutical sector, which exports large volumes of medicine and chemical products to the U.S., could be impacted if tariffs increase the cost of supply chains. Given the complexity of global pharmaceutical regulations, companies may struggle to absorb these additional costs.

5. Technology and Manufacturing

UK-based tech manufacturers exporting electronics, machinery, and telecommunications equipment could face additional costs due to tariffs on imported components. With rising expenses, businesses may need to rethink their U.S. market strategies.

How Could These Tariffs Affect the UK Economy?

The economic consequences of these tariffs could be severe:

Loss of Export Revenue: The UK exports approximately £140 billion worth of goods to the U.S. annually. A significant reduction in exports could impact GDP growth.
Job Losses: Industries reliant on exports may need to cut jobs to offset losses, particularly in manufacturing-heavy regions.
Weakened Pound: If trade slows, investor confidence in the UK economy may drop, leading to currency depreciation and higher import costs.
Trade Policy Uncertainty: The UK government, still navigating post-Brexit trade policies, faces additional challenges in negotiating new agreements with global partners.

How Can UK Businesses Get Around the Tariffs?

If a favorable trade deal cannot be reached, businesses will need to adapt their strategies to maintain profitability. Here are several potential approaches:

1. Diversify Export Markets

Instead of relying on U.S. trade, businesses should explore alternative markets such as the EU, Canada, Australia, and Asia.
The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) offers new trade opportunities with countries like Japan, Mexico, and Singapore.

2. Restructure Supply Chains

Businesses could move some production to tariff-free countries such as Canada or Mexico, which have easier access to the U.S. under the USMCA (formerly NAFTA).
Setting up manufacturing facilities in the U.S. would allow companies to avoid import tariffs, although this would involve significant investment.

3. Product Reclassification and Regulatory Adjustments

Tariffs are often applied based on the HS (Harmonized System) code assigned to a product. By modifying a product’s composition or assembly location, businesses may qualify for a lower tariff category.
For instance, if raw steel faces high tariffs but fabricated steel structures do not, a company could adjust its manufacturing process accordingly.

4. Trade Agreements and Tariff Exemptions

Some industries may qualify for tariff exemptions under U.S. trade laws, such as the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) or Section 301 exclusion lists.
Businesses should engage with trade organizations to lobby for sector-specific exemptions.

5. Free Trade Zones (FTZs) and Bonded Warehouses

UK businesses can take advantage of Foreign Trade Zones (FTZs) in the U.S., where imported goods can be stored, modified, or re-exported without paying tariffs.
Bonded warehouses allow companies to delay tariff payments until goods are sold, improving cash flow.

6. Shift to Digital and Service-Based Revenue

Tariffs primarily affect physical goods. UK companies may consider shifting towards service-based or digital business models, such as software, consulting, and e-commerce platforms.

7. Political and Legal Action

UK businesses should lobby the UK and U.S. governments for trade concessions or exclusions.
Partnering with trade associations and legal experts can help navigate the complexities of tariff regulations.

The U.S. tariffs on UK goods present a serious challenge to exporters and could have widespread economic implications. While negotiations between the UK and U.S. continue, businesses must take proactive measures to protect their market position. By diversifying trade partnerships, optimizing supply chains, and leveraging trade policy mechanisms, UK businesses can adapt to the evolving trade landscape and minimize the financial impact of these tariffs.

Ultimately, the ability to navigate these trade barriers effectively will determine which businesses thrive and which struggle in an increasingly protectionist global economy.